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Playing
for Royals Requires Dual Strategies
by Lenny Frome
Video poker players
live for their royal flushes.
Besides the monetary
reward, those beautiful royals mark a player as someone special. Players remember
them and talk about them. Royal flushes are the notches on the barrel, the Zeros
on the fuselage, the campaign ribbons.
Most players look
upon each new hands as an opportunity to bag a royal and experience the thrill
of being elevated by their peers.
Some players can
make royals with their eyes closed. One player confided that she was nearly
scared by the way royals follow her around. Two weeks after hitting a $2,000
progressive, she hit a suited oryal that earned her a $6,500 vacation. Ask her
how many royals she’s had and she’ll ask you what month you are referring to.
If you have the
Midas touch with royals, I’d prefer you read something other than this article.
That way, if your streak ends, I won’t get blamed.
‘Royal Hunting’
Unfortunately,
most players work hard for and wait long intervals between their royals. Most
would do nearly anything to get more of them. Luckily, there are ways to do
just that.
However, before
going "royal hunting," it pays to understand just what the rules are
that control our destiny when it comes to royals.
As a preface, let’s
remember that the statistics of random numbers govern video-poker machines.
When we discuss an event or an interval between events, we are presenting it
as an average over a long, long time of play. When we say a royal will hit once
every "N" games, we are talking about an average after many multiples
of "N" games have been played.
When playing video
poker on a Jacks or Better machine, which is the most popular version offering
progressive Royal Jackpots, a player must expect to experience a loss between
royals. The rate of loss will depend on two factors: The pay schedule offered
by the machine and the card-playing strategy of the player.
Figuring the
Odds
For reference,
consider a $1-denominated machine with an 8/5 (full-house/flush) pay schedule
with a $4,000 jackpot, which is the minimum reset value.
Even the optimum
playing strategy will (on average) produce a loss rate of 4.7 percent in the
interval between royals. The average interval between royals is about 40,000
hands when a player uses optimum strategy.
A typical player
will in $200,000 and get back $190,000 without any royal. The royal will produce
a $4,000 payout. cutting the loss to $5,400 for a 97.3 percent overall payback.
The royal contributes 2 percent of the overall payback and all the other winners
yield 95.3 percent.
If the meter increases
above the $4,000 level and the player stays with exactly the same card-playing
strategy, then there will be no change in the interval between royals. It is
that factor that lures professional players to these machines when the jackpot
warrants it.
Making an Adjustment
Many non-professional
players will be content to play it safe and stay with a fixed strategy regardless
of what the meter has increase to. They may not realize that by not adjusting
their strategy to optimize the overall payback (with royals), they are costing
themselves money, just as surely as if they didn’t play optimum strategy when
the meter was at $4,000 value.
If they did adjust
their strategy, the royals would actually come up more often. What deters most
players is the realization that the 4.7 percent (no royal) loss rate must increase
with any change. So, their bankroll between royals will shrink faster. They
are unwilling to accept this possibility, even though the mathematics of the
game show it to be the safer approach.
On the other hand,
the utility value of a large jackpot, taken together with the ego-boosting value
of the royal, would appeal to many players even though it is riskier to their
limited bankroll and reduces the payback in the long run. These players often
don’t know a reasonable way to alter their strategy to optimize the chance of
attaining their objective.
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Lenny Frome spent
35 years in Aerospace Program Management, before ‘retiring’ to Las
Vegas, where he went on to become one of the foremost authors and analysts of
Video Poker. He has authored nearly 1000 articles, which have appeared regularly
in casino journals in every area of the country where Video Poker is played.
For more of Lenny’s articles and Products, visit Compu-Flyers
Video Poker Heaven
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